Methodology · v1.1

The ANTE Score

One verified number, 0–100, that says how much a creator's public trade calls have actually worked out. It is computed only by the platform from the resolved-call log — never anything a creator can set, edit, or cherry-pick. The method is public and versioned so the rating carries authority, not vibes.

How it's computed

• A win is a kept promise, not drift. A call counts as a win only if its stated target was hit before its stated stop, checked against the actual price tape. Stopped out first = loss. No target/stop hit by the horizon = resolved by realized P&L at that point.
• Only falsifiable calls score. A call must state a price level (target or stop). Vague "watching $X" posts aren't scored — they count against coverage, not the grade.
• Small samples shrink. The score is the Wilson lower bound on the win rate over resolved calls, so a 5-for-5 record doesn't masquerade as proven. Under 20 resolved calls we show "Building", not a number.
• Coverage gate, corroborated (v1.1). When we can verify fewer than 80% of a creator's detected calls, their unverified calls become the tiebreaker: if the 1-Week Read on those vague calls doesn't contradict the verified record (≥ −2% vs the market, over ≥ 10 calls), the honest score stands. If their stated calls "win" while their vague calls lose money — the cherry-picking signature — the score is capped at 60 and flagged. Missing data keeps the cap. A partial coverage badge is always shown either way.
• Default horizon. When a call states no timeframe, it is evaluated over a disclosed 60-day window.
• Chart-read levels are labelled. Levels read off a chart image (vision OCR) are validated against the real entry and carry a provenance flag; an unreadable chart is skipped, never guessed.
• Always shown with its evidence. The score never appears as a bare number — it's shown with the decided-call count and a 95% confidence interval, recomputed on every new resolution.

Bands

The 1-Week Read (beside the score, never in it)

Most public calls state no falsifiable level, so they can't be scored. For those we show a separate 1-Week Read: the average direction-adjusted price move over the 7 days after each call, from the entry at post time, minus the same-window market return (SPY for stocks, BTC for crypto) so a trending tape doesn't flatter everyone. It is momentum, not a kept promise — it is labelled unverified everywhere it appears and is never blended into the ANTE Score.

Record Shape — the five-axis radar

The ANTE Score is a verdict; the radar is the anatomy. Each spoke is arithmetic over the same resolved-call log the score used — nothing on it is a model's or an editor's opinion. Two creators with the same score can be opposite traders; the shape shows the trade-off the single number compresses. A radar is drawn only for creators with 20+ resolved calls — below that, any shape would be noise wearing precision.

• Accuracy — “How often are they right?” The raw win rate over resolved calls, using the same win definition as the score: stated target hit before the stated stop, checked against the tape. Alone it is the most misleading statistic in trading — which is why the next spoke exists.
• Expectancy — “If you took every call, did it make money per trade?” The average P&L per call, wins and losses netted, each trade capped at ±100% so one lottery-ticket option can't perfume the mean. 50 means breakeven; above it, following made money per trade, below it lost. The scale is stretched around breakeven (±5%/trade reads as ≈38/62, ±10% as ≈27/73, saturating for extreme records) so realistic differences are visible. High Accuracy with low Expectancy is the hidden leak: wins often, loses money, because the average loser dwarfs the average winner.
• Falsifiability — “How much of their feed can even be checked?” Coverage: the share of detected calls that stated a checkable price level, making them gradeable at all. The same coverage number that gates the score. Low falsifiability doesn't prove bad faith — it means most of the feed is unaccountable and the verified record rests on a thin slice.
• Discipline — “Do they define their risk before the trade?” The share of calls stating both a target and a stop — a complete, falsifiable risk plan. Across the cohort this is the spoke that separates “stops honored, losses small” from “no stops, averages down.”
• Track record — “How much evidence backs this shape?” Depth of the resolved sample, log-scaled from the 20-call gate (20 ≈ 20, ~60 ≈ 52, 300+ = 100). It measures confidence, not quality — a creator can max this spoke while every other sits at zero, which simply means the record is very well measured and bad.

Reading the shape: don't look for the biggest blob. A tall-Accuracy / short-Expectancy kite wins often and loses money; its mirror image is the classic trend-follower — wrong often, but winners dwarf losers. Tall Falsifiability and Discipline on a modest record is an honest, measurable trader worth watching mature. The shape is the trader's fingerprint; the score can't show it.

Changelog

v1.1 (2026-07) — one rule changed: the blanket partial-coverage cap became the corroborated cap above. For records we scrape exhaustively, the platform — not the creator — controls what's counted, so the honest Wilson score stands whenever the unverified tail agrees with the verified one. Every prior value is preserved in the public score history. v1 (2026-06) — initial release.

Limitations (disclosed)

Seeded scores are computed from public posts, so a pre-scrape deleted call can't be recovered; futures and options legs that can't be priced are excluded from the gradeable set. Latency-honesty, recency weighting and a variance penalty are planned for a calibrated v2 and are not yet in v1. Every value is immutable and auditable; the version stamp moves to v2 when the method changes.

Not investment advice. Records are computed from public posts — see methodology. Full disclaimer · Corrections & removal